Insurgents move to border
mmediately following the tragic events of 9/11 US President George W. Bush made his intentions clear to smoke out Osama Bin Laden from his cave and bring him to justice.
Seven years after those incidents, despite the presence of around 70,000 western troops in Afghanistan, figure heads behind the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington remain out of reach for the Bush administration. The war on terror, led by US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, may now be involved in another military crisis with tribal areas of Pakistan now looming as the next likely battle zone.
Following years of an international military campaign against Al Qaida, the terrorist organisation continues to actively communicate with their followers around the world while engaging in unrelenting attacks against the West and its allies.
Today alongside Al Qaida, there are several Taliban and minor groups, positioned on both sides of the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, one of them is Tahreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, whom Pakistani officials recently banned, calling them an extension of Al Qaida in the region.
After the 9/11 attacks against the Taliban in Afghanistan forced the group into the lawless tribal region of Pakistan, eventually transforming it into a safe haven for the Taliban and Al Qaida operatives allowing them to operate freely. Almost seven years later, that region poses a serious threat not only against the stability in Afghanistan but also to Pakistan and the region at large.
In the last month alone, almost 500 people were killed in military operations against the insurgents in the tribal region of Pakistan and over 300,000 people were internally displaced.
On the other side, the Taliban also increased their violent activities in the country attacking government installations, security forces, as well as infrastructure causing high human casualties. During the last several years, Pakistan has been engaged with the Taliban making efforts to find peaceful solutions, which include signing a peace accord, financial recompense for their casualties, as well as withdrawing Pakistani forces from some locations.
While it gave the militants strength to negotiate with the government, these efforts have been somewhat fruitless, as today Islamabad is unable to control the area with 170,000 strong forces being deployed alongside the Afghan border. The country is practically at war with the insurgents, leading western analysts to claim that the real front is Pakistan and not Iraq or Afghanistan.
On other side of the border in Afghanistan, which only five years ago had been considered a success story, today reflects a grim picture with insurgencies increasing day by day.
Almost after seven years in power, the central government in Kabul remains ineffective with the country unofficially divided in many parts raising serious questions about the future stability of Afghanistan.
Alongside this deteriorating situation, unemployment is high, economy is poor, development activities are marginal, infrastructure is disorganised, authorities are corrupt, while poppy cultivation is at an all time high [currently providing 90 per cent of the world’s illegal heroin] leading some experts to say, that the country is at the door step of becoming a Norco-economy and failed state.
The only real achievement has been freedom of the press, which is now also increasingly under threat from not only the Taliban and Al Qaida elements but also from radicals with the government. The war which aimed to bring peace to the region has made little progress in seven years with no side satisfied with the results as the death toll continues to mount.
Mohammad Tahir is a senior journalist, specialising in South and Central Asian Affairs.