Medical Schools Plan to Enroll 21% More Students by 2012

Getting into medical school could get easier in the coming years, as schools in the United States expect to welcome 21 percent more first-year students by 2012, the Association of American Medical Colleges reported today. The projection, drawn from an annual survey of medical-school expansion, is good news for medical educators who worry that an aging population with chronic health problems won’t have enough doctors to turn to. By 2012, medical schools expect to enroll 19,900 first-year students — 3,400 more than in 2002-3. The survey found that more than 86 percent of existing medical schools have expanded their first-year classes or plan to do so in the next five years. At least nine new medical schools are under development or in discussion. “This projected enrollment increase will help alleviate a future shortage of physicians, although we recognize it is just one part of what must be a comprehensive solution,” said Darrell G. Kirch, the association’s president. “As more medical-school slots become open, this is an excellent time to consider a career in medicine.” Graduating more physicians is one step, but finding spots for them to train as medical residents remains a hurdle. The federal government has capped the number of residency training positions that Medicare pays for, and until that cap is lifted, the supply of new doctors will still be constrained. —Katherine Mangan